2011 NCAA Tournament Preview

The brackets are set and the tournament is upon us. Whether you’re a basketball geek like myself, a casual sports fan, or someone who doesn’t watch any pre-march college basketball, chances are you are participating in at least one bracket pool. After all, the brackets are a major part of what makes March great. With that in mind, I have provided a brief preview of the regions complete with my upset specials, sleepers, Elite 8 and Final Four picks to help you fill out those brackets. Enjoy.

EAST REGION

Upset special: Marquette over Xavier – 13 of Marquette’s 14 losses come against teams in the NCAA tournament and they have several top 25 wins. Xavier’s best win is over Temple and it took triple OT for them to beat Wofford. They also have losses to Miami-Ohio, Charlotte, and Dayton.

Potential Sleeper: Syracuse – Syracuse is an experienced well-coached team that could definitely upset a much younger and extremely vulnerable North Carolina team. They are a dangerous matchup for Ohio State as well because they will be tough to defend and could get the Buckeyes into foul trouble forcing them to reach into their shallow bench.

Elite 8 Picks: Syracuse and Ohio State

Final Four Pick: Ohio State – While Syracuse could present problems for Ohio State, I expect the Buckeyes to step up to the challenge and make it to Houston. Thad Matta’s team is simply too balanced and should dominate the paint against an undersized Syracuse team.

Other Games of Note: George Mason-Villanova – This is about as close as you can get to a lock in the 8/9 game. George Mason was a popular pick to advance to the Sweet 16 before getting matched up against Ohio State in the second round and Villanova is limping in to the tournament, having lost 10 of its last 15 games including their conference tournament opener.

WEST REGION

Upset special: Missouri to the Sweet 16 – The Tigers have had more than their fair share of problems away from home this season, but they play a frenetic style of defense that can cause all kinds of problems for unfamiliar opponents in a one-game scenario and they benefit from a favorable draw. Cincinnati averages less than 70 points a game and only has one win over a healthy top 25 team. Meanwhile, the Tigers would be facing a UConn team that just finished playing 5 tough games in 5 days – teams who have accomplished similar feats in the past have not fared well in the tournament. This is where the Tigers relentless full court press could really take its toll on the Huskies. I like Missouri to make it to the Sweet 16.

Potential Sleeper: Texas – Don’t be fooled by the fact that the Horns struggled a little bit down the stretch and got hammered in the Big 12 Championship game. The Big 12 was an underrated league this year and the Jayhawks are a national title contender. Texas has size inside, shooters outside, playmakers everywhere, and they are capable of playing the best defense in the country. Their depth and athleticism will cause problems for everyone they face, including a potential matchup with Duke.

Elite 8 Picks: Texas and San Diego State

Final Four Pick: Texas – See my notes above. Bottom-line: I think Texas is too deep and athletic for a Duke team that struggles with overly athletic ball clubs and I think the Horns are ready to make a run to be a virtual host in Houston. The game against the Aztecs should be a great one as SDSU is every bit as athletic as Texas. The difference in that game should be Texas’ size down low. BYU had no problem with the Aztecs when they had Center Brandon Davies but got hammered without him. Tristan Thompson and Gary Johnson should do work against the Aztecs in the paint and lock up a Final Four berth for the ‘Horns.

Other Games of Note: Penn State-Temple – This is a good 7/10 matchup to look at for an upset. Temple is a good team and should win this game, but Penn State is capable of playing great defense and can really slow the game down. The Nittany Lions also have beaten Michigan State and Wisconsin twice each and played to within three points of both Ohio State and Purdue this season. Temple should win this game, but Penn State is capable of taking them out of their game and forcing them to grind it out, a style Penn State excels in.

SOUTHWEST REGION

Upset Special: Morehead State to the Sweet 16 – This one could make or break my bracket. Louisville is a trendy sleeper pick in this region and are certainly capable of making a run. However, the Cardinals don’t rebound very well and are undersized down low. This will present matchup problems for them as they face a Morehead State team that has the NCAA’s all-time leading rebounder in Kenneth Faried. I like the Eagles to upset Louisville and a shaky Vanderbilt team who is overseeded at 5 before bowing out to Kansas in the Elite 8.

Sleeper: Purdue – Purdue plays great defense and are capable of slowing the game down where they are a very efficient team. I think their combination of defense and shooters will make for a tough matchup for Notre Dame and in a one-game scenario, they could be effective against the Morris twins of Kansas. Purdue’s biggest weakness though is its bench as the team only significantly plays 6 guys. This wouldn’t be a matchup problem for them though until a potential Elite 8 game against a very deep Kansas team.

Elite 8 Picks: Kansas and Purdue

Final Four Pick: Kansas – Too much depth and balance. The Jayhawks are the most efficient shooting team in the country and are in the top 5 in assists per game. They are outscoring opponents by almost 19 per game (most in the country) and they can play inside and out. Perhaps the thing to like most about this team in the tournament is that they have proven they can win when they don’t play well and can win games in the 60s or the 90s. They are easily the best team in this region.

Other Games of Note: Richmond-Vanderbilt – Richmond is outscoring opponents by almost 10 points per contest and come into the tournament having won their last 7 games. The Spiders have also beaten three teams in this tournament including Temple and Purdue. Vanderbilt on the other hand has lost almost every game against quality SEC opponents with the exception of a February win over Kentucky at home, which was later avenged by the Wildcats. Other than that, their best wins are over St. Mary’s who is not in the field and a November win against North Carolina, when they looked to be headed back to the NIT. Vanderbilt is an incredibly weak 5 seed and could very well lose to Richmond.

SOUTHEAST REGION

Upset Special: Belmont over Wisconsin – Okay, so this is probably not news to you as it seems as if the whole world is all over this pick, but here are a couple of things to like about this game. Wisconsin has struggled against mid-major teams in the tournament in the past and Belmont has size and balance as well as tournament experience. Finally, Wisconsin is coming off a game in which they lost 36-33. Yes, that’s right, they scored a total of 33 points in 40 minutes.

Potential Sleeper: Kansas State – In the last few weeks Kansas State has shown that they have the make-up of a Final Four team and are capable of winning four games easily. Unfortunately, they have also shown why they were a bubble team three weeks ago. If Kansas State is running their offense well and getting solid play out of Jacob Pullen, this is without question the most dangerous team in this bracket. Unfortunately, they are also capable of losing their opening game to Utah State.

Elite 8 Picks: Pitt and Florida – This is easily the weakest bracket and while there are a couple potential sleepers here, there really isn’t anything that should keep either of the top seeds from making it to the Elite 8.

Final Four Pick: Florida – While I do think Pitt is a better team than Florida, Im going with Florida over Pitt because of Pitt’s poor tournament history. Jamie Dixon has never made it past the Sweet 16 with the Panthers who have routinely underperformed in March. They are the weakest of the #1 seeds and in any other region, I wouldn’t have them making it this far. They are certainly capable of beating the Gators and making their first Final Four appearance, but Im going with Billy Donovan’s experience and a starting 5 that is completely intact from last year.

Other Games of Note: Utah State – Kansas State and Old Dominion-Butler – I mentioned earlier that while Kansas State could dispatch of the Aggies fairly easily, they are also capable of laying an egg. Utah State is would not be a bad upset pick here. I have Old Dominion advancing past Butler in every one of my brackets. It’s not as solid of a bet as George Mason/Villanova, but the Bulldogs have been wildly disappointing all year. Matt Howard is a solid player, but Butler is not nearly as good of a team as they were last year.

FINAL FOUR AND CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES

Kansas over Florida – Florida is extremely overmatched in this game. They do not have the depth, athleticism, or size to compete with Kansas. Kansas is a legitimate national title contender and the only way they lose this game is if they play poorly (which they have at times this season). Unfortunately, with the exception of a game against Texas the morning after the death of Thomas Robinson’s mother, Lisa, the Jayhawks have played their best in the biggest games. This should be no different.

Ohio State over Texas – Despite what is sure to be an overwhelmingly pro-Texas crowd, I expect Ohio State to continue their season of dominance and overcome what could be a classic fight against the Longhorns. Texas certainly has more depth than Ohio State and could really get the Buckeyes into foul trouble, which would be a major problem them. However, the Horns pride themselves on playing straight up in the post (no double teams) and this could be as much of a problem for them against Ohio State as it was against Kansas. If they do start double teaming Sullinger down low, that will open up things for Ohio State’s excellent shooters. This should be a great game, but the matchups favor Ohio State.

Kansas over Ohio State for the National Championship – Rock Chalk Jayhawk, Bill Self becomes the only coach in the tradition-rich history of Kansas Basketball to win two NCAA Tournament Titles! This is the game we have all been waiting for all season, pairing up the two obvious best teams in the country against one another. This should be an excellent game that goes down to the wire. Ohio State’s shooters will present problems for Kansas smaller guards on the defensive end, but the Morris twins should be able to neutralize Sullinger down low. I expect fouls to be a big part of this game as free throw shooting and depth will be keys to the game. Neither team has much of an advantage at the charity stripe, but Kansas has a major advantage in depth where the Hawks can go 8 or 9 deep. Kansas wins a close one and hangs another banner in historic Phog Allen Fieldhouse.

By: LJ Guillotte

College Basketball Contributor

SportsEyez.com